How to win at sports betting
Legal sports betting is growing at an incredible rate. This means that users can make money from something they love. There are many stories about famous hustlers who beat the odds long-term.
You have to be there. It is difficult to make a profit betting on sports, even for those who are new to the game.
Wait, what about the guaranteed picks and locks for the week that keep popping up all over? What about simple systems such as going against the public, which bettors make serious money off of?
There are no guarantees in sports betting. This is true regardless of how well-tuned a system might be. People who claim they can project it all with 100% accuracy are lying.
Is it possible to win sports betting? Or is it so unpredictable that you end up losing your entire bankroll? The truth is somewhere in between. You should view betting as entertainment, and be responsible about your wagers.
If you are looking for more, it is possible to improve your skills to the point where you can make a profit. However, this will take some practice. Continue reading to learn how to win sports betting, one step at a.
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Let's talk about "winning" in sports betting.
Imagine this: You scroll through social media looking for a picture of a large winning ticket that has been cashed recently. This means the winning betor is the one who cashed the large amount.
Not necessarily. You may be able to identify the wager placed by the person, but you will need more information to calculate overall profitability. What is the total amount that this person has wagered versus their actual winnings since they started?
It can be quite shocking to find out the answer. Although a single large score might make you feel like you are a winner, a closer look may show that you have actually spent more money than you won over the long-term.
But what if you win more often than you lose? This means that you are a winner. It could be, but it all comes down to how much you have made and how much you spent. You may be losing money if your winners have less favorable odds.
We'll tell you why this is (hint: sportsbooks are profit-making entities that charge a vig to facilitate wagers). But, just because you win 50% of your bets does not guarantee that you will make a profit.
There aren't many long-term bettors that will beat the books on a consistent basis. Books would struggle to stay in business if it was that simple. The most successful businesses have no problems with this aspect, so let it sink in.
It is important to clarify that there are professional sports gamblers as well as many people who claim to be. It is difficult to turn a long-term income. This is why it is a rare trick.
How Vig works and what it means
The sportsbooks are the only sure-winner in sports betting. While they will make money over the long-term, we cannot guarantee the same for many other bettors.
The net hold on losing bets and the payouts on winners is what sportsbooks call vig. This is also how they make money. This is also known as juice and is charged to bettors for placing them.
To demonstrate, let's consider a standard point spread bet. Both sides default odds are set at 110, but it can fluctuate based on betting activity.
Baltimore Ravens +3.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
For this contest, the Steelers are favored at 3.5 points. Both sides have the same odds, so you would place the same wager to win a winning bet in either direction. A $100 winning bet returns a profit $90.91.
Why not double your money? The vig is the reason. In this case, the book keeps 9.1% of the return as juice. To make long-term profits, you must win more than you lose. You also need to beat the vig.
In the case of a moneyline wager, the amount of the vig may not always be clear. These wagers can have very different numbers on each side.
New York Yankees +105
Los Angeles Dodgers -125
Quick calculation: If you wager $100 on the Yankees you would get $105 back as a winner. You would need to wager $125 in order to get $100 back on Dodgers. With this information, you can use quick formulas to calculate the vig.
To win $100, wager $125 on Dodgers
Total Return of $225
The implied probability is the sum of total return and amount bet. 125/225 = 55.5%
To win $105, bet $100 on the Yankees
Return on investment: $205.
Implied probability = 100/205 = 48.8%
Add the implied probabilities on both sides (55.5 + 48.8) and you get 104.3. In a coin flip scenario, one side will win and the other lose, which works out to 50%/50 or 100%.
According to the odds, the implied probability is 104.3%. So what's the deal? The vig charged by the book for the bet is 4.3%.
Sportsbooks make money. No matter how well it is disguised, the vig is always there. Understanding how it affects the bottom line is crucial.
How often are you required to win sports betting in order to make money?
Let's suppose that you plan to bet 100 points spreads on the NFL season at the top betting sites. Your goal is to win more than you lose and make a profit. You finish the season with a record of 51 to 49.
Are you making money? Let's see how it works: $100 per game, standard odds of -110 and a wager size.
Total bet: 100 * $100 = 10,000
Winning bets: 51 * $100 = $5.100
Profit from winnings: 51 * $90.91 = 4,636.41
Complete losses: 49 * $100 = $4,900
We won 51 of the 50 bets. The $5,100 we put out returns to us along with a profit of $4636.41 for a total $9,736.41. We have nothing left to show for the 49 losing bets. We have a loss $263.59 if we subtract $9,736.41 from our total wagered amount of $10,000
Despite having more winners than losers you still lost money. This is because you didn’t make enough money to beat the vig. To break even with the juice, you would need to win 52.4% of your bets.
If you win more than this, you can make a profit. A 55%-56% win rate would be acceptable for those who wager regularly and in a reasonable amount of volume. Those who do not succeed are at 60%.
It may not seem like much when you think about the "guaranteed winners", and other claims of extraordinary winning-loss records. However, it should be viewed in a different light: People who claim to win at higher clips are telling tall tales.
What is a betting unit?
The amount of money you place in play on a particular game is called a betting unit. Many successful sports gamblers believe that each game should have a different unit size to allow them to accurately gauge their results and manage their bankroll.
A unit should also be proportional to your bankroll. A conservative gambler might only place 1% of their total bankroll at risk if they have $1,000. The unit size should be $10.
The unit size increases for those who have larger amounts. The ratio of units per account can change depending on your strategy, risk tolerance, and other factors. It's generally 1% to 2% at the lowest end, and up to 5% if you are more aggressive. Winning Betting